… A recent wave of M&A activity is telling me we are about to enter stage 4 of the inflationary process, as I first laid out exactly five months ago, on April 14th (graph reproduced below). If this wave is solid and the Iranian threat does not become a reality and/or politicians do not destroy what they have achieved so far, we may see a surge in capital expenditures, we may get closer to a rise in intermediate/capital goods and energy prices, and finally see the famous CPI numbers tell us that inflation is with us to stay…
Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: september-15-2009
The week started on a positive tone, with plenty of optimistic outlooks, new trading recommendations, updated views on every market as well as the political front. Before we can add anything, let me mention that yes, I did notice that almost every market analyst on Monday attributed Friday’s sell-off to President Barack Obama’s imposition of tariffs (starting at 35%) on tire imports from China. The decision backed a United Steelworkers union complaint.
Thus, after reading the news, I wondered why I would have not seen the connection between the new tariffs and the sell off I commented on yesterday’s letter (www.sibileau.com/martin/2009/09/14). Yesterday, I browsed the Bloomberg News application and found out that the announcement had first been officially released on Friday at 9PM Easter Time. Yet, Friday’s sell off was triggered at 11AM, right after the Fed purchased Agency debt. Furthermore, the sell off was significant and in EVERY relevant market: FX (vs. USD), oil, equities, credit, etc. How could an announcement on new tariffs that affects only $1.7BN in imports (as reported by Bloomberg) have caused a worldwide sell-off ten hours earlier? On the other hand, the complaint had been already filed in April of this year, and the Obama Administration had until September 17th to make a decision. Perhaps I am wrong, but I find it way more likely that a worldwide sell-off be caused by a sudden change in the outlook on quantitative easing policies than a tariff announcement on a trade of $1.7BN per year on rubber tires. However, I perfectly understand the negative reaction on Monday morning to this announcement, which challenges the cornerstone of policy response during this crisis, namely international coordination.
Now, why am I confident the outlook may have changed? Yesterday, and in line with my comments, Richmond Fed President Lacker speculated the Fed may not end up purchasing the entire $1.25Tr of Mortgage-backed securities, during a speech at the Risk Management Association of Charlotte, North Carolina (It was not explicit in his speech, but a reputable analyst at an also reputable investment bank reported this as having been “commented”. For transparency, I let the reader decide. The speech can be found at: http://www.richmondfed.org/press_room/speeches/president_jeff_lacker/2009/lacker_speech_20090914.cfm)
Proceeding now to review yesterday’s action, I think one word says it all: Liquidity! Yes, the 3-month Libor – Overnight Index Swap spread reached a lower low, at 11.85 bps, as 3-mo Libor hit 29.5bps! As we wrote on September 9th (www.sibileau.com/martin/2009/09/09 ): “ …going forward I don’t think liquidity will have the power to fuel the rally to new highs, as the law of marginal returns kicks in, but at least forms a formidable wall against any rebellion…”. We had a rebellion on Friday, but liquidity ruled and we saw the S&P500 again reach for the 1,050pts and the CDX IG Series 12 touch 105-106bps.
This macroeconomic backdrop has forced a multitude of analysts to update their forecasts. At “A View from the Trenches”, we don’t have to do so, for we understand that there is nothing more practical than a good theory. Thus, after having read at “Human Action” (1949) from Ludwig Von Mises (highly recommended) and Gottfried Haberler’s, “Money and the Business Cycle” (1932) a long time ago during our time at the University of Buenos Aires, we wrote back on April 14th (our first letter) that: “…We will keep reading the bearish comments from those who see a bear market rally in stocks, as they single out all the horrifying figures of the real estate, labor, retail, etc. markets. There is nothing wrong with those figures, but this is not a bear market rally. It’s just the “relative” inflation Gottfried Haberler wrote about 77 years ago… In conclusion, as long as the Fed and all the other central banks keep flooding buckets with liquidity and feed us with daily announcements, we can see prices NOT falling…” In the meantime, most analysts at the major investment banking firms are unanimously constructive or “cautiously optimistic”, given the success of the quantitative easing policies worldwide.
I would like to continue writing here, but I am afraid I will have to defer to upcoming letters. But there is a lot more to say to this new stage we are in. To begin with, a recent wave of M&A activity is telling me we are about to enter stage 4 of the inflationary process, as I first laid out exactly five months ago, on April 14th (www.sibileau.com/martin/2009/04/14). If this wave is solid and the Iranian threat does not become a reality and/or politicians do not destroy what they have achieved so far, we may see a surge in capital expenditures, we may get closer to a rise in intermediate/capital goods and energy prices, and finally see the famous CPI numbers tell us that inflation is with us to stay. It takes time, but we are patient, particularly when we profit from patience.
Finally, an interesting development is taking place in interest rates and credit curves, which I intend to address shortly. In the meantime, for reference if you are interested, you can read about the origins of such development on our letter from May 7th (www.sibileau.com/martin/2009/05/07).
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[...]always a big fan of linking to bloggers that I love but don’t get a lot of link love from[...]……
November 1st, 2011 at 9:35 AM
Links…
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November 1st, 2011 at 10:36 AM
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November 1st, 2011 at 6:17 PM
Online Article……
[...]The information mentioned in the article are some of the best available [...]……
November 1st, 2011 at 6:22 PM
While I was {browsing|surfing} {today|yesterday} I {saw|noticed} a {great|excellent} {post|article} {about|concerning}…
I like to look around the online world, regularly I will go to Digg and read and check stuff out…
November 1st, 2011 at 6:27 PM
Recommeneded websites…
[...]Here are some of the sites we recommend for our visitors[...]……
November 1st, 2011 at 6:42 PM
Blogs ou should be reading…
[...]Here is a Great Blog You Might Find Interesting that we Encourage You[...]……
November 1st, 2011 at 6:58 PM
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November 1st, 2011 at 7:19 PM
Gems form the internet…
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November 1st, 2011 at 8:55 PM
Websites you should visit…
[...]below you’ll find the link to some sites that we think you should visit[...]……
November 2nd, 2011 at 2:55 AM
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November 2nd, 2011 at 10:44 AM
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November 2nd, 2011 at 4:42 PM
Gems form the internet…
[...]very few websites that happen to be detailed below, from our point of view are undoubtedly well worth checking out[...]……
November 2nd, 2011 at 5:49 PM
Sites we Like……
[...] Every once in a while we choose blogs that we read. Listed below are the latest sites that we choose [...]……
November 2nd, 2011 at 7:48 PM
Gems form the internet…
[...]very few websites that happen to be detailed below, from our point of view are undoubtedly well worth checking out[...]……
November 2nd, 2011 at 8:14 PM
Yahoo results…
While searching Yahoo I found this page in the results and I didn’t think it fit…
November 3rd, 2011 at 1:47 AM
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[...]just beneath, are numerous totally not related sites to ours, however, they are surely worth going over[...]……
November 3rd, 2011 at 3:10 AM
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[...]one of our visitors recently recommended the following website[...]……
November 3rd, 2011 at 3:57 AM
Awesome website…
[...]the time to read or visit the content or sites we have linked to below the[...]……
November 3rd, 2011 at 5:13 AM
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[...] Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine a few unrelated data, nevertheless really worth taking a look, whoa did one learn about Mid East has got more problerms as well [...]……
November 3rd, 2011 at 6:17 AM
Recommeneded websites…
[...]Here are some of the sites we recommend for our visitors[...]……
November 3rd, 2011 at 7:21 AM
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[...]below you’ll find the link to some sites that we think you should visit[...]……
November 3rd, 2011 at 9:38 AM
Awesome website…
[...]the time to read or visit the content or sites we have linked to below the[...]……
November 3rd, 2011 at 11:15 AM
Recent Blogroll Additions……
[...]usually posts some very interesting stuff like this. If you’re new to this site[...]……
November 3rd, 2011 at 12:21 PM
Read was interesting, stay in touch……
[...]please visit the sites we follow, including this one, as it represents our picks from the web[...]……
November 3rd, 2011 at 4:50 PM
Gems form the internet…
[...]very few websites that happen to be detailed below, from our point of view are undoubtedly well worth checking out[...]……
November 3rd, 2011 at 5:50 PM
Recent Blogroll Additions……
[...]usually posts some very interesting stuff like this. If you’re new to this site[...]……
November 3rd, 2011 at 8:13 PM
Sources…
[...]check below, are some totally unrelated websites to ours, however, they are most trustworthy sources that we use[...]……
November 4th, 2011 at 2:09 AM
Websites you should visit…
[...]below you’ll find the link to some sites that we think you should visit[...]……
November 4th, 2011 at 3:10 AM
Sites we Like……
[...] Every once in a while we choose blogs that we read. Listed below are the latest sites that we choose [...]……
November 4th, 2011 at 4:18 AM
Great website…
[...]we like to honor many other internet sites on the web, even if they aren’t linked to us, by linking to them. Under are some webpages worth checking out[...]……
November 4th, 2011 at 5:14 AM
Read was interesting, stay in touch……
[...]please visit the sites we follow, including this one, as it represents our picks from the web[...]……
November 4th, 2011 at 6:24 AM
Sources…
[...]check below, are some totally unrelated websites to ours, however, they are most trustworthy sources that we use[...]……
November 4th, 2011 at 7:36 AM
Recent Blogroll Additions……
[...]usually posts some very interesting stuff like this. If you’re new to this site[...]……
November 4th, 2011 at 8:14 AM
Awesome website…
[...]the time to read or visit the content or sites we have linked to below the[...]……
November 4th, 2011 at 8:32 AM
Links…
[...]Sites of interest we have a link to[...]……
November 4th, 2011 at 9:52 AM
Recommeneded websites…
[...]Here are some of the sites we recommend for our visitors[...]……
November 4th, 2011 at 10:12 AM
Cool sites…
[...]we came across a cool site that you might enjoy. Take a look if you want[...]……
November 4th, 2011 at 11:12 AM
Recommeneded websites…
[...]Here are some of the sites we recommend for our visitors[...]……
November 4th, 2011 at 12:09 PM
Recommeneded websites…
[...]Here are some of the sites we recommend for our visitors[...]……
November 4th, 2011 at 4:37 PM
You should check this out…
[...] Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine a few unrelated data, nevertheless really worth taking a look, whoa did one learn about Mid East has got more problerms as well [...]……
November 4th, 2011 at 5:31 PM
Blogs ou should be reading…
[...]Here is a Great Blog You Might Find Interesting that we Encourage You[...]……
November 4th, 2011 at 6:36 PM
Cool sites…
[...]we came across a cool site that you might enjoy. Take a look if you want[...]……
November 4th, 2011 at 6:57 PM
Online Article……
[...]The information mentioned in the article are some of the best available [...]……
November 4th, 2011 at 7:33 PM
Gems form the internet…
[...]very few websites that happen to be detailed below, from our point of view are undoubtedly well worth checking out[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 5:27 AM
Superb website…
[...]always a big fan of linking to bloggers that I love but don’t get a lot of link love from[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 5:37 AM
Recent Blogroll Additions……
[...]usually posts some very interesting stuff like this. If you’re new to this site[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 6:31 AM
Superb website…
[...]always a big fan of linking to bloggers that I love but don’t get a lot of link love from[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 10:28 AM
Visitor recommendations…
[...]one of our visitors recently recommended the following website[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 11:00 AM
Cool sites…
[...]we came across a cool site that you might enjoy. Take a look if you want[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 11:03 AM
Sources…
[...]check below, are some totally unrelated websites to ours, however, they are most trustworthy sources that we use[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 12:48 PM
Related……
[...]just beneath, are numerous totally not related sites to ours, however, they are surely worth going over[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 1:45 PM
Read was interesting, stay in touch……
[...]please visit the sites we follow, including this one, as it represents our picks from the web[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 2:37 PM
Recent Blogroll Additions……
[...]usually posts some very interesting stuff like this. If you’re new to this site[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 4:30 PM
Check this out…
[...] that is the end of this article. Here you’ll find some sites that we think you’ll appreciate, just click the links over[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 4:43 PM
Superb website…
[...]always a big fan of linking to bloggers that I love but don’t get a lot of link love from[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 5:29 PM
Awesome website…
[...]the time to read or visit the content or sites we have linked to below the[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 5:44 PM
Read was interesting, stay in touch……
[...]please visit the sites we follow, including this one, as it represents our picks from the web[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 6:13 PM
Informative and precise…
Its difficult to find informative and precise information but here I found…
November 5th, 2011 at 6:16 PM
Recommeneded websites…
[...]Here are some of the sites we recommend for our visitors[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 6:21 PM
Gems form the internet…
[...]very few websites that happen to be detailed below, from our point of view are undoubtedly well worth checking out[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 6:50 PM
Superb website…
[...]always a big fan of linking to bloggers that I love but don’t get a lot of link love from[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 7:10 PM
Awesome website…
[...]the time to read or visit the content or sites we have linked to below the[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 7:58 PM
Awesome website…
[...]the time to read or visit the content or sites we have linked to below the[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 8:10 PM
Gems form the internet…
[...]very few websites that happen to be detailed below, from our point of view are undoubtedly well worth checking out[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 8:13 PM
Great website…
[...]we like to honor many other internet sites on the web, even if they aren’t linked to us, by linking to them. Under are some webpages worth checking out[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 9:12 PM
Websites we think you should visit…
[...]although websites we backlink to below are considerably not related to ours, we feel they are actually worth a go through, so have a look[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 9:20 PM
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Best Regards Justin…
This is really interesting, You are a very skilled blogger.
I have joined your rss feed and look forward to seeking more of your great post.
Also, I’ve shared your web site in my social networks!
Best Regards Justin…
November 6th, 2011 at 5:23 AM
Recommeneded websites…
[...]Here are some of the sites we recommend for our visitors[...]……
November 6th, 2011 at 7:29 AM
Websites worth visiting…
[...]here are some links to sites that we link to because we think they are worth visiting[...]……
November 6th, 2011 at 8:44 AM
Recent Blogroll Additions……
[...]usually posts some very interesting stuff like this. If you’re new to this site[...]……
November 6th, 2011 at 2:36 PM
Bored at work…
I like to browse in various places on the online world, regularly I will go to Stumble Upon and read and check stuff out…
November 6th, 2011 at 3:08 PM
Recent Blogroll Additions……
[...]usually posts some very interesting stuff like this. If you’re new to this site[...]……
November 6th, 2011 at 4:07 PM
Superb website…
[...]always a big fan of linking to bloggers that I love but don’t get a lot of link love from[...]……
November 6th, 2011 at 5:41 PM
Awesome website…
[...]the time to read or visit the content or sites we have linked to below the[...]……
November 6th, 2011 at 7:43 PM
Blogs ou should be reading…
[...]Here is a Great Blog You Might Find Interesting that we Encourage You[...]……