Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: november-2-2009
The week is starting on bad news. To begin with, last Friday’s close was horrible in equities. Not so much in credit, where spreads did not widen more than they had on Wednesday. However, the overall picture is fragile, from a technical perspective. I am [...]
Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: november-2-2009
The week is starting on bad news. To begin with, last Friday’s close was horrible in equities. Not so much in credit, where spreads did not widen more than they had on Wednesday. However, the overall picture is fragile, from a technical perspective. I am attaching this morning a graph of the VIX Index (source: Bloomberg), which measures the implied volatility of the S&P500 Index options. You can see that the recent spike is indeed relevant. Is this necessarily bearish of risk assets? No, not necessarily, but given the situation the world is in, volatility is expensive and usually demands a discount…
The other not so good news is the bankruptcy of CIT. This should not surprise anyone, to be fair, but the truth is that unfortunately it is taking place in not so good a week. It should not matter, because in my view this correction is still manageable.
In short, all I want to leave with you this morning is the following: As long as central banks and governments of the G-8 “play it cool”, quiet and do not screw up with unnecessary hostile rhetoric, the market should take profits, the late longs should get their lesson and things should get back to normal. Normal these days includes lots of leverage, because if there is anything interesting about this leverage crisis is that the world is trying to get out of it via more leverage. Therefore, any minimal suggestion that signals a hike in interest rates, or the need for higher capitalization of financial institutions, or tougher regulations that destroys flexibility in the financial markets is going to derail the healing process started last March. It will not be weaker fundamentals, animal spirits or educated fear. It will be politicians not doing the smart thing that will lead us from an overdue correction to a new crisis.
Personally, I don’t give a lot of probability to a catastrophic scenario, because it is hard for me to believe that so much political reputation will have been put on the line to arrive to November and make a false move that brings down the house of cards. But I always hope for the best fearing the worst…
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Sites we Like……
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November 3rd, 2011 at 5:22 PM
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[...]usually posts some very interesting stuff like this. If you’re new to this site[...]……
November 3rd, 2011 at 5:34 PM
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[...]always a big fan of linking to bloggers that I love but don’t get a lot of link love from[...]……
November 3rd, 2011 at 6:27 PM
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November 3rd, 2011 at 6:34 PM
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November 3rd, 2011 at 6:47 PM
Read was interesting, stay in touch……
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November 3rd, 2011 at 7:36 PM
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November 3rd, 2011 at 7:46 PM
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November 4th, 2011 at 1:43 AM
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[...]below you’ll find the link to some sites that we think you should visit[...]……
November 4th, 2011 at 2:42 AM
Read was interesting, stay in touch……
[...]please visit the sites we follow, including this one, as it represents our picks from the web[...]……
November 4th, 2011 at 3:52 AM
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November 4th, 2011 at 4:46 AM
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November 4th, 2011 at 5:56 AM
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November 4th, 2011 at 7:09 AM
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November 4th, 2011 at 8:04 AM
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November 4th, 2011 at 8:20 AM
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November 4th, 2011 at 10:45 AM
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November 4th, 2011 at 11:41 AM
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November 4th, 2011 at 4:10 PM
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November 4th, 2011 at 5:05 PM
You should check this out…
[...] Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine a few unrelated data, nevertheless really worth taking a look, whoa did one learn about Mid East has got more problerms as well [...]……
November 4th, 2011 at 7:07 PM
Links…
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November 5th, 2011 at 5:12 AM
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November 5th, 2011 at 8:09 AM
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November 5th, 2011 at 10:28 AM
Check this out…
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November 5th, 2011 at 10:35 AM
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[...]please visit the sites we follow, including this one, as it represents our picks from the web[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 10:40 AM
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[...]Here are some of the sites we recommend for our visitors[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 12:36 PM
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[...]the time to read or visit the content or sites we have linked to below the[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 2:35 PM
You should check this out…
[...] Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine a few unrelated data, nevertheless really worth taking a look, whoa did one learn about Mid East has got more problerms as well [...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 2:36 PM
Links…
[...]Sites of interest we have a link to[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 4:43 PM
Links…
[...]Sites of interest we have a link to[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 6:21 PM
Check this out…
[...] that is the end of this article. Here you’ll find some sites that we think you’ll appreciate, just click the links over[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 7:23 PM
Superb website…
[...]always a big fan of linking to bloggers that I love but don’t get a lot of link love from[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 7:45 PM
Superb website…
[...]always a big fan of linking to bloggers that I love but don’t get a lot of link love from[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 7:45 PM
Superb website…
[...]always a big fan of linking to bloggers that I love but don’t get a lot of link love from[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 8:47 PM
Recommeneded websites…
[...]Here are some of the sites we recommend for our visitors[...]……
November 6th, 2011 at 12:34 AM
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November 6th, 2011 at 4:59 AM
Read was interesting, stay in touch……
[...]please visit the sites we follow, including this one, as it represents our picks from the web[...]……
November 6th, 2011 at 6:00 AM
Cool sites…
[...]we came across a cool site that you might enjoy. Take a look if you want[...]……
November 6th, 2011 at 8:19 AM
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November 6th, 2011 at 10:09 AM
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November 6th, 2011 at 2:45 PM
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November 6th, 2011 at 5:14 PM
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[...]below you’ll find the link to some sites that we think you should visit[...]……
November 6th, 2011 at 6:17 PM
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November 6th, 2011 at 7:18 PM
Sources…
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