…At the big picture level, I think there are two interesting observations to make, related to two theses I have written about earlier…
Please, click here to read this article in pdf format: november-27-2009
With US markets closed yesterday, the level of liquidity was not normal in the face of the events/news out of Dubai. Equity markets elsewhere got the message (finally!) and the sell-off, which to my surprise had been absent yesterday, took place.
As I write these comments there is speculation on the motive Dubai may have had to request the standstill (until at least May 2010) in financing payments by property developer Nakheel and other member companies of Dubai World, which is the company’s state-owned parent. The markets’ deception is due to Dubai’s recent announcement of $5BN raised in a fully subscribed transaction with two Abu Dhabi-owned banks. I prefer not to comment on rumors. Apparently, this situation unfolded because of some tension between Abu Dhabi and Dubai. Later in the day, the market began to discriminate between Dubai’s systemic risk and that of other Gulf nations.
At the big picture level, I think there are two interesting observations to make, related to two theses I have written about earlier. Back on September 2nd, I wrote that:
“…emerging markets are the Achilles’ tendon… We can perfectly see a G-8 central bank coordinate assistance with another G-8 member, but investors are wondering who is going to pay the bill, if a fiscal problem unfolds in an emerging market. The IMF? Maybe, but given that history suggests otherwise, the onus is on policy makers…” (www.sibileau.com/2009/09/02 ).
This debt crisis seems to have certain unique characteristics, given the Emirates’ political dynamic. However, given that local banks were involved in the financing of the real estate delusions with people’s deposits, this is also another typical emerging market debt crisis. Therefore, policy makers in the developed world will be forced again to consider assistance mechanisms.
The second observation relates to our old thesis on gold. On September 3rd, I suggested that:
“…A run against an emerging market’s currency would not necessarily be supportive of the USD, if the same is triggered by a wave of defaults affecting the country’s financial system. It could potentially be supportive of gold, if the big guys (G-8 countries) don’t lend a timely hand...” (www.sibileau.com/martin/2009/09/03 )
Gold did not rally yesterday, but the USD did. Does this therefore mean that there will be a “timely hand”? (Our gold thesis reads as follows: “…when there is global coordination of inflationary monetary policies, gold cannot be a safe and lucrative asset. When inflationary monetary policies are not globally coordinated, gold is a safe and lucrative asset…”)
One is tempted to induce an answer. However, we are not inductive at “A View from the Trenches”. We follow the Austrian method, which is purely deductive. It is a fallacy to think that if A is true –>B is true, therefore, when B is true –>A is true.
Applied to this situation, it is wrong to conclude that: “If when there is global coordination (of central banks) gold doesn’t rally (=is not lucrative), therefore, when we see like yesterday that gold did not rally (= was not lucrative), global coordination is on the way”.
It is nevertheless a bit early to draw conclusions here because:
1. – Yesterday the US markets were closed (maybe this was precisely the reason behind the sudden announcement by Dubai),
2. – It is not yet clear what Dubai really intends to do.
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November 4th, 2011 at 7:37 PM
Awesome website…
[...]the time to read or visit the content or sites we have linked to below the[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 5:40 AM
Great website…
[...]we like to honor many other internet sites on the web, even if they aren’t linked to us, by linking to them. Under are some webpages worth checking out[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 6:03 AM
Websites we think you should visit…
[...]although websites we backlink to below are considerably not related to ours, we feel they are actually worth a go through, so have a look[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 6:34 AM
Visitor recommendations…
[...]one of our visitors recently recommended the following website[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 7:12 AM
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This is very interesting, You’re a very skilled blogger.
I have joined your rss feed and look forward to seeking more of your great post.
Also, I have shared your website in my social networks!
Best Regards Justin…
November 5th, 2011 at 1:49 PM
Websites worth visiting…
[...]here are some links to sites that we link to because we think they are worth visiting[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 3:04 PM
Check this out…
[...] that is the end of this article. Here you’ll find some sites that we think you’ll appreciate, just click the links over[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 3:10 PM
Great website…
[...]we like to honor many other internet sites on the web, even if they aren’t linked to us, by linking to them. Under are some webpages worth checking out[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 5:25 PM
Sites we Like……
[...] Every once in a while we choose blogs that we read. Listed below are the latest sites that we choose [...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 6:19 PM
Related……
[...]just beneath, are numerous totally not related sites to ours, however, they are surely worth going over[...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 7:13 PM
Sites we Like……
[...] Every once in a while we choose blogs that we read. Listed below are the latest sites that we choose [...]……
November 5th, 2011 at 8:13 PM
Websites worth visiting…
[...]here are some links to sites that we link to because we think they are worth visiting[...]……
November 6th, 2011 at 5:26 AM
Check this out…
[...] that is the end of this article. Here you’ll find some sites that we think you’ll appreciate, just click the links over[...]……
November 6th, 2011 at 6:50 AM
Bored at work…
I like to look around the internet, regularly I will just go to Stumble Upon and read and check stuff out…
November 6th, 2011 at 7:33 AM
Read was interesting, stay in touch……
[...]please visit the sites we follow, including this one, as it represents our picks from the web[...]……
November 6th, 2011 at 8:47 AM
Awesome website…
[...]the time to read or visit the content or sites we have linked to below the[...]……
November 6th, 2011 at 1:59 PM
Sites we Like……
[...] Every once in a while we choose blogs that we read. Listed below are the latest sites that we choose [...]……
November 6th, 2011 at 2:23 PM
Cool sites…
[...]we came across a cool site that you might enjoy. Take a look if you want[...]……
November 6th, 2011 at 4:09 PM
Superb website…
[...]always a big fan of linking to bloggers that I love but don’t get a lot of link love from[...]……
November 6th, 2011 at 4:18 PM
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I am really impressed with your writing skills as well as with the layout on your weblog.
Is this a paid theme or did you customize it yourself?
Anyway keep up the excellent quality writing, it is rare to see a nice blog like this one nowadays..
B…
November 6th, 2011 at 5:45 PM
Related……
[...]just beneath, are numerous totally not related sites to ours, however, they are surely worth going over[...]……