Please, click here to read this article in pdf format:february-2-2010 When Maynard Keynes wrote the already famous sentence: “…And when output has increased and prices have risen, the effect of this on liquidity-preference will be to increase the quantity of money necessary to maintain a given rate of interest…”, he was clearly considering “time” as [...]
Please, click here to read this article in pdf format:february-2-2010
When Maynard Keynes wrote the already famous sentence: “…And when output has increased and prices have risen, the effect of this on liquidity-preference will be to increase the quantity of money necessary to maintain a given rate of interest…”, he was clearly considering “time” as a magnitude in his analysis.
It takes time to increase output and it takes time for prices to rise, reacting to such increase. The rise in prices and the speed of the output increase have to be matched by the nominal interest rate referred above. This is why Keynes also wrote, in the same paragraph: “…prices will rise in a degree partly governed by the shapes of the physical supply functions, and partly by the liability of the wage-unit to rise in terms of money…” (The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money”, Ch 13, S. III). Briefly, Keynes’ idea was to coordinate monetary policy to debase a currency taking advantage of productivity slack (i.e. the shapes of the physical supply functions) and unemployment (i.e. the liability of the wage-unit to rise in terms of money).
Since the start of 2010, it seems that of all sudden, central bankers have forgotten this idea, while at the same time, governments attack banks with higher reserve requirements and capitalization ratios. Banks are not to blame for the shocks. Shocks are produced by central banks, which determine the money supply function, but I guess somebody has to be blamed.
With the above in mind, I thought of 3 phases that may unfold in 2010. In all of them, the challenge of matching monetary policy to productivity is omnipresent. This framework suggests a long-term bullish view of gold and commodity based currencies, and a definite path to inflation by 2011, when it is most likely that the real tightening will take place.
These phases are presented in the chart below, which I think is self-explanatory. In the next letter, I will nevertheless elaborate more on this framework. In terms of timing, the only certainty we may have is that we will need to wait another quarter to see earnings disappointing.
Martin Sibileau
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